I'm Baaaack ...

Hi all

Yep, it has been nearly a year since my last post.

I haven't been completely idle, but it may look like that.

There have been some family issues that have necessarily distracted me from the blog and modelling.

I have still been pondering my battle generator.

I've develop something call Strike Points to try and represent those operational level decisions about air deployment - defense, ground attack and interdiction - and rocketry strikes  - attacks on HQs, communications (road, rail and radio) and forces.  The key thing is the integration with the Force point idea.  I seem to have some disparate mechanisms for managing force strengths and responses to shock and thus battlefield availability, and I'd like to 'possibly' streamline this and use a consistent mechanism.  That integration has prove difficult so far.

I've have been painting up a storm.

 This is my painting station over the summer while I was house sitting.  I think that I processed nearly 600 models, though I have still to base them.  Another big task.

I've painted:

• the Canadian Brigade in Europe;
• A Soviet Motor Rifle Division;
• Numerous Air Defense, Engineering and Bridging units for most combatants;
• Desert forces;
• More British, Soviet (Airborne) and US (Merdec and NATO 3 Colour) forces;
• Undercoated a French Armoured Division and various US forces (Army and Airborne) 

I also tried to get some gaming in.  Didn't succeed at that as I spent so much time painting.

So, I'm still here. The proposed aim of the Blog is still intended.  Sometimes things don't flow easy.  I'll get there.

Cheers

Martin

Continuing Development of the Battle Generator

 It's been a while.  I've been busy painting, working on my conversion of the Piquet Field of Battle: WW2 rules, and other stuff that I won't bore you with.

So, at the end of  the post of 4 November 2012, I described some of the things that still needed to be done.  The list is below:

"There are still more elements to be established.  These include:

1. defining in game terms the effects of being 'susceptible to shock' and 'susceptible to unavailability of forces';
2. how to deal with the recovery of FPs at the end of a battle;
3. how to define battle posture and adjustments to the forces resulting from the Force Tables;
4. reflecting the impact of the Attack Options on the support units available, particularly engineering and artillery;
5. designing a process for airpower and strategic strikes and their influence on-table;
6. how progression, or not, through the Battlespaces affects posture and FPs in subsequent Battlespaces;
7. an idea that the forces faced in each sector maybe variable, such as Sector 1 having possibilities for engagements with West German, Dutch or  British forces, or Sector 3 having US Army or Bundeswehr."

Below, I'll show you where I've got to on the first two of the above list.

But first.  I've made some slight changes to one of the tables in the "The Notion of Force Points" to give a degree of troop unavailability for the Soviets in the "Attack from Peacetime Posture" in Battlespace 1.

Table 1 – Force Points Availabilty by Attack Options:

Attack Options	Peacetime Posture	Attack on Two Fronts	Attack on Three Fronts	Attack on Five Fronts
Battle (min/max)
Battlespace 1	5*!#	6	8	12
	5*!	6*!	7!	9
Battlespace 2	2	2	4	8
	1*	2	3	4
Battlespace 3	1	3	3	3
	1	1	2	1
Warsaw Pact	8 (28)	11 (40)	15 (60)	23 (92)
NATO	7 (28)	9 (36)	12 (48)	14 (56)

! Susceptable to Shock; * Susceptable to unavailability of forces; # assume Likely Shock

 
What have I been able to do?  Well first up - 

1. Defining in Game Terms the Effects of Being 'Susceptible to Shock' and 'Susceptible to Unavailability of Forces'

Susceptible to Unavailability of Forces

The background for unavailability of forces is the amount of warning NATO might get to the various Attack Options.  Below are a set of options that I've considered.  In the end I settled on the last option using a D6 and rolling for each Unit and removing a proportion of that Unit's stands.

Seven days warning

- 23 divisions but reduced manning by up to ⅓

Four days warning

- 23 divisions but reduced manning by ⅓ – ½ and possible shock

2 days warning

- 23 divisions but reduced manning by ½ – ⅔ and likely shock

Very little warning

- 19 divisions but reduced manning by ½ – ⅔ and shock

Options for Susceptible to Unavailability of Forces

	Normal D6 – Roll/Std	Normal D6 – Roll/Unit *	Average D6 – Roll/Unit #
reduced manning by up to ⅓	1, 2 = Remove; 3-6 = Not	Remove ⅓ of stands	2 = Remove no stands 3, 4 = Remove ⅓ of stands 5 = Remove ½ of stands
reduced manning by ⅓ – ½	1-3 = ⅓; 4-6 = ½ If ⅓, then 1, 2 = Remove; 3-6 = Not Else 1-3 = Remove; 4-6 = Not	1-3 = Remove ⅓ of stands 4-6 = Remove ½ of stands	2 = Remove no stands 3 = Remove ⅓ of stands 4 = Remove ½ of stands 5 = Remove ⅔ of stands
reduced manning by ½ – ⅔	1-3 = ½; 4-6 = ⅔ If ½, then 1-3 = Remove; 4-6 = Not Else 1-4 = Remove; 5, 6 = Not	1-3 = Remove ½ of stands 4-6 = Remove ⅔ of stands	2 = Remove ⅓ of stands 3 = Remove ½ of stands 4 = Remove ⅔ of stands 5 = Remove ¾ of stands
reduced manning by up to ⅔	1-4 = Remove; 5, 6 = Not	Remove ⅔ of stands	2 = Remove ½ stands 3, 4 = Remove ⅔ of stands 5 = Remove ¾ of stands

* Round Down # Round Up to nearest stand

Further Options for Susceptible to Unavailability of Forces

	Average D6 – Roll/Unit #	Normal D6 – Roll/Unit #
reduced manning by up to ⅓	2 = Remove no stands 3 = Remove ¼ of stands 4, 5 = Remove ⅓ of stands	1, 2 = Remove no stands 3, 4 = Remove ¼ of stands 5, 6 = Remove ⅓ of stands
reduced manning by ⅓ – ½	2 = Remove no stands 3 = Remove ¼ of stands 4 = Remove ⅓ of stands 5 = Remove ½ of stands	1 = Remove no stands 2 = Remove ¼ of stands 3, 4 = Remove ⅓ of stands 5, 6 = Remove ½ of stands
reduced manning by ½ – ⅔	2 = Remove ⅓ of stands 3, 4 = Remove ½ of stands 5 = Remove ⅔ of stands	1 = Remove ⅓ of stands 2-4 = Remove ½ of stands 5, 6 = Remove ⅔ of stands
reduced manning by up to ⅔	2 = Remove ⅓ of stands 3 = Remove ½ stands 4, 5 = Remove ⅔ of stands	1 = Remove ⅓ of stands 2-4 = Remove ½ stands 5, 6 = Remove ⅔ of stands

* Round Down # Round Up to nearest stand

Now why would I choose this option?  Basically, it uses an easy to find D6, covers the range of possibilities but includes some out of range options and not fixing on the upper limit.

Susceptible to Shock

Before the beginning of the Campaign, after defining the initial conditions, roll a D10 to determine the Level of Shock based on the Type of Shock - Possible, Likely or Actual Shock - on the table below. (Option: roll separately for each Sector.)

Command and Troop Quality Shock Level by Prevailing Type of Shock

	Possible Shock	Likely Shock	Shock
No Shock	1 – 3	1	-
Level 1 Shock	4 – 7	2 – 4	1
Level 2 Shock	8, 9	5 – 8	2 – 6
Level 3 Shock	10	9, 10	7 – 10

Once a battle begins in a Sector/Battlespace a further roll is made after a specified period of time, depending on the current Level of Shock:

• For Level 1 Shock, roll at the end of the first Turn, then again 1 Day later (3 Turns), then there are no further rolls until end of game. The rolls are made with a -3;
• For Level 2 Shock, roll at the end of the first Turn, there are no further rolls until end of game. The rolls are made with a -1;
• For Level 3 Shock, roll at the end of the first Day (3 Turns), then again 1 Day later (3 Turns), there are no further rolls until end of game.
• Additional Adjustments:
  • +1 if prevous battle was a decisive loss or worse
  • -2 if previous battle was a decisive victory or better

The Shock Level can only move one level up or down during a battle.

The Shock Level needs to be recorded through the Campaign.

 Effect of Level of Shock on Command and Troop Quality

	Command Shock	Troop Quality Shock
Level 1 Shock	Down 1 Die Type	Down 1 Die Type
Level 2 Shock	Down 1 Die Type	Down 2 Die Type
Level 3 Shock	Down 2 Die Type	Down 3 Die Type

2. How to Deal with the Recovery of FPs at the End of a Battle

FPs are allocated to choose Brigade/Regiment sized units on the gaming table.  However, the effects of combat relate to Combat Teeth units and Battalions.  To resolve this, the FPs recovered will depend on the success or not on the Battlespace.

Check FPs based on relative battle success. Recovery based on the results in each sector

Probability of Recovery	% retained from initial allocation - Soviet *	% retained from initial allocation - NATO *
Crushing Victory	80	85
Decisive Victory	70	80
Marginal Victory	60	75
Marginal Loss	65	70
Decisive Loss	55	65
Crushing Loss	45	60

* Swedish Rounding

The percentages are based on the idea that a significant proportion of losses will be recovered, and the difference between NATO and Warsaw Pact results from a) the greater ratio of recovery vehicles to teeth in NATO, and b) the much higher tail to teeth ratio – NATO is about 3.5, whereas Warsaw Pact is about 1.7.

After the battles applying to a Battlespace have been conducted, calculate the recovery for each sector.  Recovery is simply the Probability of Recovery multiplied by the FPs allocated to the Sector.  The recovery for each sector is added together, then rounded. The new rounded value is combined with the Force Points for the next Battlespace and freely allocated amongst the sectors. 

Example 1:

Attack on Three Fronts, Sector 2 – combat in Battlespace 1. WP allocated 3 FP and NATO 2 FP. After the battle the WP had achieved a crushing victory over NATO, who concomitantly received a crushing loss. On this basis: WP applies 80% to 3FP = 2.4; NATO applies 60% to 2FP = 1.2.

Example 2:

Attack on Three Fronts, Sector 3 – combat in Battlespace 1. WP allocated 2FP and NATO 2FP. After the battle NATO had achieved a marginal victory over the WP, who concomitantly received a marginal loss. On this basis: WP applies 65% to 3FP = 1.95; NATO applies 75% to 2FP = 1.5.

 Example 3:

Attack on Three Fronts, Sector 1 – combat in Battlespace 1. WP allocated 3FP and NATO 3FP. After the battle the WP had achieved a marginal victory over NATO, who concomitantly received a marginal loss. On this basis: WP applies 60% to 3FP = 1.8; NATO applies 70% to 2FP = 1.4.

Example - Battlespace Recovery:

Attack on Three Fronts, combat in Battlespace 1. WP allocated 8FP and NATO 7FP. After the battle NATO recovered 1.2 + 1.5 + 1.4 = 4.1, while the WP recovered 2.4 + 1.95 + 1.8 = 6.15. On this basis: WP has 6 + 4 = 10FP to allocate in Battlespace2; NATO has 4 + 3 = 7FP to allocate in Battlespace2.

Final Thoughts

Having worked through this example of recovery of FPs, I'm happy with how the results work out.  What it does bring out is that the number of FPs, and therefore the forces on the gaming table, are smaller that I expected, potentially with fewer bells and whistles.

My thoughts are tending toward adding to the die rolls to determine the forces to be used for each FP allocated

Well, that's it for now.

The Notion of Force Points - Revised

Force Points

The key decision to make the campaign go forward is to describe the forces available for each side to use. This will be achieved by the use of Force Points (FP), tables describing the FPs available, NATO's responsive to attack and Force Tables setting out the forces available for use on-table. Further, a decision tree will set out how choices are to be made between the Attack Options, whether the attack was from a Gradual Build Up or a Standing Start, and NATO's response.

The aim of Force Points is to provide a resource to be allocated by the player to determine the type and number of  sized forces available on-table. The Force Points allocated generate that number of rolls on a Forces Table to determine on-table forces. The Forces Table will reflect the Sector, Battlespace and time period.

Force Points are calculated as the number of divisions available in Western Europe for each side divided by four. For example, the hypothesised Attack from Peacetime Posture outlined in the intelligence report 'Warning of War in Europe', June 1984, suggest only about 12 divisions would be available from the Group of Soviet Forces, Germany (GSFG), giving 3 Forces Points. The player would then allocate these points amongst the three sectors. When determining the forces available for a battle in a sector the player rolls a number of times on the Forces Table equal to the points allocated to the Sector.

A matrix table of available FP needs to be constructed. The following process was used to achieved that table. In the intelligence report 'Warning of War in Europe', June 1984, four Attack Options were identified as possible for a Warsaw Pact attack on Western Europe. The report also suggests for each Attack Option the likely total number of Warsaw Pact divisions available for each option, as well as the time need to operationalise each Attack Option and the likely warning that NATO may receive. This is outlined in Appendix 1 at the end of this post. As noted above, the Attack from a Peacetime Posture option suggests a minima of 12 divisions for the Forces involved. Attack Option 4 – Attack with Five Fronts, offers the maxima for those forces at about 90 divisions.

The boardgame 'Third World War' by Games Designer Workshop provides an Order of Battle and a timeline for the initial and follow-on echelons for the Warsaw Pact and NATO. The scale of those forces matches Attack Option 4 – Attack with Five Fronts. Making several leaps of imagination I filled in the blanks for the other Attack Options. The result is Table 1 – 'Forces Points Availability by Attack Options' which outlines the Force Points available for each Battlespace for each of the four Attack Options.

  

Table 1 – Force Points Availabilty by Attack Options:

Attack Options Battle (min/max)

Peacetime Posture

Attack on Two Fronts

Attack on Three Fronts

Attack on Five Front

Battlespace 1	3*# (3/4)	5	8	12
	5*!	6*!	7!	9

Battlespace 2	2	2	4	8
	1*	2	3	4

Battlespace 3	1	3	3	3
	1	1	2	1

Warsaw Pact	7 (28)	10 (40)	15 (60)	23 (92)
NATO	7 (28)	9 (36)	12 (48)	14 (56)

* Susceptible to shock; ! Susceptible to unavailability of forces; # allocated to Sectors 1 & 2 for Battlespace 1, a 50% chance of 1 FP for Sector 3

There are three modifiers to the figures in the table. These potentially reduce the available forces and their quality – making the seeming parity between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces less the case in reality. Firstly, forces may be susceptible to shock, due to the compressed nature of warning, leading to difficulties for command and control. Secondly, there may be unavailability of forces. Asking a question on the Yahoo TOandE group elicited several responses that suggested that NATO troops, especially the Bundeswehr, may be widely dispersed. On a weekend, perhaps only a third of a units forces may be able to speedily get back to base, in the context of the Attack from a Peacetime Posture option. The more warning the easier it is for NATO to get in position. The third modifier, that is specific to the opening moves of the Attack from a Peacetime Posture option, is that the forces available for an attack in Sector 3 which consist of the Central Group of Forces are represented by a 50% chance of one FP. The remaining FPs can be allocated between Sectors 1 and 2.

The first Battlespace will be influenced by NATO's political response to Soviet War preparations, which leads to Table 2a – 'NATO Response to War Warning in Europe by Attack Options' which roughly describes the available number of divisions available by the Attack Option and by three levels of response by NATO. It has been assumed that Soviet preparation time for each option is at the 'realistic' level. The NATO response is keyed to these preparation times with the 'active response' at the lower bound of the Soviet preparation times. Table 2b is the expression of these responses as FPs.

  

Table 2a – NATO Response to War Warning in Europe by Attack Options:

Attack Options NATO Response\	Peacetime Posture	Attack on Two Fronts	Attack on Three Fronts	Attack on Five Fronts
Battlespace 1	24-48 hours; Very little warning for NATO	Minimum 4-5 days, with 7-10 days being more realistic; Four or more days warning for NATO	Minimum 8-9 days, with 10-12 days being more realistic; Seven or more days warning for NATO	Minimum 15 days, with three weeks being more realistic; Thirteen or more days warning for NATO
Active Response	Only Option - 19 divisions but reduced manning by ½ – ⅔ and shock	Seven days warning - 23 divisions but reduced manning by up to ⅓	Ten days warning - 28 divisions	21 days warning - 34 Divisions
Measured Response	Too Late	Four days warning - 23 divisions but reduced manning by ⅓ – ½ and possibly shock	Seven days warning - 23 divisions but reduced manning by up to ⅓	Fifteen days warning - 30 divisions
Tail Chasing Response	Much Too Late	2 days warning - 23 divisions but reduced manning by ½ – ⅔ and shock	Four days warning - 23 divisions but reduced manning by ⅓ – ½ and possibly shock	Seven days warning - 23 divisions but reduced manning by up to ⅓

Table 2b – Force Points by NATO Response by Attack Options:

Attack Options NATO Response	Peacetime Posture	Attack on Two Fronts	Attack on Three Fronts	Attack on Five Fronts
Warsaw Pact	3*# (3/4)	5	8	12
Active Response	5*!(½ – ⅔)	6*!(⅓)	7	9
Measured Response	5*!(½ – ⅔)	6*!(⅓ – ½)	6!(⅓)	8
Tail Chasing Response	5*!(⅔)	6*!(½ – ⅔)	6*!(⅓ – ½)	6!(⅓)

* Susceptible to shock; ! Susceptible to unavailability of forces; # allocated to Sectors 1 & 2 for Battlespace 1, a 50% chance of 1 FP for Sector 3

Determining Attack Posture and modifiers to Force Points

To determine how all these elements hang together and produce the end result of a set of FPs for allocation and forces chosen the following decision tree is used. The decision tree includes an option for the Non Soviet Warsaw Pact forces being unwilling.

1. Roll for Attack Option, using a D10:
   1. Attack from Peacetime Posture 1
   2. Attack on Two Fronts 2, 3
   3. Attack on Three Fronts 4, 5, 6
   4. Attack on Five Fronts 7, 8, 9, 0

2. Roll for whether the Attack had been from a Gradual Build Up or a Standing Start using a D6, 1-4 Gradual Build Up; 5, 6 Standing Start. The results affect the Force Points available, although some Attack Options may have minima/maxima:
   1. Gradual Build Up – brings Force Points forward to the first Battlespace:
      1. Roll a further D6, 1 = 0; 2, 3, 4 = +1; 5, 6 = +2 additional Force Points for Battle 1, these are subtracted from Battle 2;
   2. Standing Start
      1. No change.

3. Roll to determine NATO responsiveness (refer Table 2b for the effects)
   1. Gradual Build Up - Roll a D10
      1. 1-4 = Active Response (immediate response)
      2. 5-9 = Measured Response (typical response)
      3. 0 = Tail Chasing Response (delayed response)
   2. Standing Start - Roll a D10
      1. 1-2 = Active Response (immediate response)
      2. 3-7 = Measured Response (typical response)
      3. 8, 9, 0 = Tail Chasing Response (delayed response)

4. Unless considering the willingness of Non Soviet Warsaw Pact now allocate Force Points to each of the three Sectors.

5. Consult the appropriate Forces table for each Sector. Roll on the Forces table for each Forces Point to determine the forces available.

Optional:

Roll to determine whether Non Soviet Warsaw Pact (NSWP) forces are willing or not. The probabilities are affected by whether there was a Gradual Build Up or Standing Start. These are deducted from the Warsaw Pact Force Point totals for Battlespace 1:

Gradual Build Up -

1. NSWP Willing 1-8
   1. No change to Force Points
2. NSWP Unwilling 9, 0
   1. Roll a further D6, 1, 2 = 0; 3, 4, 5 = -1; 6 = -2 Force Points

Standing Start -

3. NSWP Willing 1-5
   1. No change to Force Points
4. NSWP Unwilling 6-0
   1. Roll a further D6, 1, 2 = -1; 3, 4 = -2; 5, 6 = -3 Force Points

 An example of the decision tree is as follows:

1. Attack Option - Roll a D10, the result is a 5.  Therefore there will be an Attack on Three Fronts;
2. What Buildup - Roll a D6, the result is a 4.  Therefore there was a Gradual Buildup;
3. Effect of Buildup - Rolling a further D6, the result is a 6.  This means that there are an additional 2 FPs in Battlespace 1 but 2 less in Battlespace 2.  Therefore the FPs available at this point for allocation by the Warsaw Pact are: Battlespace 1 = 10; Battlespace 2 = 2; and Battlespace 3 = 3.
4. NATO response - Roll a D10, the result is a 6.  There is a measured response, meaning that NATO in Battlespace 1 had 6!(⅓) FPs.  So there are 6 FPs but they're susceptible to unavailability of forces, losing up to a third.  Battlespace 2 = 3 and Battlespace 3 = 2.
5. NSWP Willingness - Roll a D10, the result is 7.  Therefore the NSWP are willing and there is no change Force Points.

The resulting Force Points for allocation amongst the three Sectors:

Warsaw Pact - Battlespace 1 = 10, Battlespace 2 = 2, and Battlespace 3 = 3;

NATO - Battlespace 1 = 6!(⅓) [4], Battlespace 2 = 3, and Battlespace 3 = 2.

A possible allocation may be:

WP/NATO

Sector 1

Sector 2

Sector 3

Battlespace 1	4	3	3
	2!	2!	2!

Battlespace 2	1	1	0
	1	1	1

Battlespace 3	1	1	1
	1	1	0

So a battle in Sector 1-Battlespace 1 involves four rolls on the Force Table for the Warsaw Pact and two rolls on a Force Table for NATO, adjusted for unavailability of forces.

The Force Table

Below is an example Forces Table, that for Sector 1 – Battle 1 for the period 1976 to 1980.  I had started to create a table covering individual years, with probabilities for troops, vehicles and weapon systems.  While more fine grained, with more variations, it really was a bit over the top.  Hence the table below, which is just a D10 roll and there you have a regiment sized force.  I intend to create three tables for each Sector-Battlespace covering three time periods.  A total of 27 tables, a set for each of the combatants.

 

Warsaw Pact Forces Table: Sector 1-Battle 1 – 1976 to 1980
Die Roll D10	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	0
3 x MRBn 2xBTR50	x
3 x MRBn 2xBMP1		x
3 x MRBn 2xBTR60			x	x
3 x MRBn 2xBTR70					x
1 x MRBn 2xBMP1						x	x		x	x
1 x TBn 2xT55	x	x		x
1 x TBn 2xT62			x		x
3 x TBn 4x T55 2xT64							x
3 x TBn 4x T62 2xT64										x
3 x TBn 6xT55						x
3 x TNn 6xT62								x	x
1 x ITBn 3xT10	x					x
D30 (122mm) How		x	x		x	x	x		x	x
D20 (152mm) How		x			x		x		x
BM-21 (122mm) MRL										x
M-46 (130mm) FG		x					x

The Future

There are still more elements to be established.  These include:

1. defining in game terms the effects of being 'susceptible to shock' and 'susceptible to unavailability of forces';
2. how to deal with the recovery of FPs at the end of a battle;
3. how to define battle posture and adjustments to the forces resulting from the Force Tables;
4. reflecting the impact of the Attack Options on the support units available, particularly engineering and artillery;
5. designing a process for airpower and strategic strikes and their influence on-table;
6. how progression, or not, through the Battlespaces affects posture and FPs in subsequent Battlespaces;
7. an idea that the forces faced in each sector maybe variable, such as Sector 1 having possibilities for engagements with West German, Dutch or  British forces, or Sector 3 having US Army or Bundeswehr.

There are probably more but these will probably emerge as I work on the above elements.  Ideas for these elements already exist but need to be fleshed out and completed.  Finally, as a repository for my ideas, I may edit these posts later.  I'll try and leave a paper trail.

If anyone has any comments on the settings and proportions that I've used, I'd appreciate them.

So, until next time, probably with my Brits.

Appendix 1

Attack Options from 'Warning of War in Europe', June 1984

Option 1 - Attack from Peacetime Posture

• Preparation for Attack - 24-48 hours; Very little warning for NATO
• Only about a dozen divisions, with very few support units, available for the Attack

Option 2 - Attack with Two Fronts

• Preparation for Attack - minimum 4-5 days, with 7-10 days being more realistic; Four or more days warning for NATO
• About 40 divisions, with some support units, available for the Attack

Option 3 -  Attack with Three Fronts

• Preparation for Attack - minimum 8-9 days, with 10-12 days being more realistic; Seven or more days warning for NATO
• About 60 divisions, with support units, available for the Attack

Option 4 - Attack with Five Fronts

• Preparation for Attack - minimum 15 days, with three weeks being more realistic; Thirteen or more days warning for NATO
• About 85 to 90 divisions, with support units, available for the Attack