Force Points
The key decision to make
the campaign go forward is to describe the forces available for each
side to use. This will be achieved by the use of Force Points
(FP), tables describing the FPs available, NATO's responsive to attack and
Force Tables setting out the forces available for use on-table.
Further, a decision tree will set out how choices are to be made
between the Attack Options, whether the attack was from a Gradual
Build Up or a Standing Start, and NATO's response.
The aim of Force Points is
to provide a resource to be allocated by the player to determine the
type and number of sized forces available on-table.
The Force Points allocated generate that number of rolls on a Forces
Table to determine on-table forces. The Forces Table will reflect
the Sector, Battlespace and time period.
Force Points are
calculated as the number of divisions available in Western Europe for
each side divided by four. For example, the hypothesised Attack from
Peacetime Posture outlined in the intelligence report 'Warning of War
in Europe', June 1984, suggest only about 12 divisions would be
available from the Group of Soviet Forces, Germany (GSFG), giving 3
Forces Points. The player would then allocate these points amongst
the three sectors. When determining the forces available for a
battle in a sector the player rolls a number of times on the Forces
Table equal to the points allocated to the Sector.
A matrix table of
available FP needs to be constructed. The following process was used
to achieved that table. In the intelligence report 'Warning of War
in Europe', June 1984, four Attack Options were identified as
possible for a Warsaw Pact attack on Western Europe. The report also
suggests for each Attack Option the likely total number of Warsaw
Pact divisions available for each option, as well as the time need to
operationalise each Attack Option and the likely warning that NATO
may receive. This is outlined in Appendix 1 at the end of this post. As noted above, the
Attack from a Peacetime Posture option suggests a minima of 12
divisions for the Forces involved. Attack Option 4 – Attack with
Five Fronts, offers the maxima for those forces at about 90
divisions.
The boardgame 'Third World
War' by Games Designer Workshop provides an Order of Battle and a
timeline for the initial and follow-on echelons for the Warsaw Pact
and NATO. The scale of those forces matches Attack Option 4 –
Attack with Five Fronts. Making several leaps of imagination I
filled in the blanks for the other Attack Options. The result is
Table 1 – 'Forces Points Availability by Attack Options' which
outlines the Force Points available for each Battlespace for each of
the four Attack Options.
Table 1 – Force
Points Availabilty by Attack Options:
Attack
Options
Battle (min/max)
|
Peacetime
Posture
|
Attack
on
Two
Fronts
|
Attack
on
Three
Fronts
|
Attack
on
Five
Front
|
Battlespace
1
|
3*# (3/4)
|
5
|
8
|
12
|
5*!
|
6*!
|
7!
|
9
|
Battlespace
2
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
8
|
1*
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
Battlespace
3
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
Warsaw Pact
|
7 (28)
|
10 (40)
|
15 (60)
|
23 (92)
|
NATO
|
7
(28)
|
9
(36)
|
12
(48)
|
14
(56)
|
* Susceptible to shock; ! Susceptible to unavailability of forces; #
allocated to Sectors 1 & 2 for Battlespace 1, a 50% chance of 1 FP for Sector 3
There are three modifiers
to the figures in the table. These potentially reduce the available
forces and their quality – making the seeming parity between NATO
and Warsaw Pact forces less the case in reality. Firstly, forces may
be susceptible to shock, due to the compressed nature of warning,
leading to difficulties for command and control. Secondly, there may
be unavailability of forces. Asking a question on the Yahoo TOandE
group elicited several responses that suggested that NATO troops,
especially the Bundeswehr, may be widely dispersed. On a weekend,
perhaps only a third of a units forces may be able to speedily get
back to base, in the context of the Attack from a Peacetime Posture
option. The more warning the easier it is for NATO to get in
position. The third modifier, that is specific to the opening moves
of the Attack from a Peacetime Posture option, is that the forces
available for an attack in Sector 3 which consist of the Central
Group of Forces are represented by a 50% chance of one FP. The remaining FPs can be
allocated between Sectors 1 and 2.
The first Battlespace will
be influenced by NATO's political response to Soviet War
preparations, which leads to Table 2a – 'NATO Response to War
Warning in Europe by Attack Options' which roughly describes the
available number of divisions available by the Attack Option and by
three levels of response by NATO. It has been assumed that Soviet
preparation time for each option is at the 'realistic' level. The
NATO response is keyed to these preparation times with the 'active
response' at the lower bound of the Soviet preparation times. Table
2b is the expression of these responses as FPs.
Table 2a – NATO
Response to War Warning in Europe by Attack Options:
Attack Options
NATO Response\
|
Peacetime
Posture
|
Attack on
Two Fronts
|
Attack on
Three Fronts
|
Attack on
Five Fronts
|
Battlespace 1
|
24-48
hours;
Very little warning for NATO
|
Minimum
4-5 days, with 7-10 days being more realistic;
Four or more days warning for NATO
|
Minimum
8-9 days, with 10-12 days being more realistic;
Seven or more days warning for NATO
|
Minimum 15
days, with three weeks being more realistic;
Thirteen or more days warning for
NATO
|
Active
Response
|
Only Option
- 19
divisions but reduced manning by ½ – ⅔
and shock |
Seven days
warning
- 23
divisions but reduced manning by up to ⅓ |
Ten days
warning
- 28
divisions |
21 days
warning
- 34
Divisions |
Measured Response
|
Too Late
|
Four days
warning
- 23
divisions but reduced manning by ⅓
– ½ and possibly shock |
Seven days
warning
- 23
divisions but reduced manning by up to ⅓ |
Fifteen days
warning
- 30
divisions |
Tail Chasing Response
|
Much Too Late
|
2 days warning
- 23
divisions but reduced manning by ½ – ⅔
and shock |
Four days
warning
- 23
divisions but reduced manning by ⅓
– ½ and possibly shock |
Seven days
warning
- 23
divisions but reduced manning by up to ⅓ |
Table 2b – Force
Points by NATO Response by Attack Options:
Attack Options
NATO Response
|
Peacetime
Posture
|
Attack on
Two Fronts
|
Attack on
Three Fronts
|
Attack on
Five Fronts
|
Warsaw Pact
|
3*# (3/4)
|
5
|
8
|
12
|
Active
Response
|
5*!(½
– ⅔)
|
6*!(⅓)
|
7
|
9
|
Measured Response
|
5*!(½
– ⅔)
|
6*!(⅓
– ½)
|
6!(⅓)
|
8
|
Tail Chasing Response
|
5*!(⅔)
|
6*!(½
– ⅔)
|
6*!(⅓
– ½)
|
6!(⅓)
|
* Susceptible to shock; ! Susceptible to unavailability of forces; #
allocated to Sectors 1 & 2 for Battlespace 1, a 50% chance of 1 FP for Sector 3
Determining Attack
Posture and modifiers to Force Points
To determine how all these
elements hang together and produce the end result of a set of FPs for
allocation and forces chosen the following decision tree is used.
The decision tree includes an option for the Non Soviet Warsaw Pact
forces being unwilling.
Roll for Attack
Option, using a D10:
Attack from
Peacetime Posture 1
Attack on Two
Fronts 2, 3
Attack on Three
Fronts 4, 5, 6
Attack on Five
Fronts 7, 8, 9, 0
Roll for whether the
Attack had been from a Gradual Build Up or a Standing Start using a
D6, 1-4 Gradual Build Up; 5, 6 Standing Start. The results affect
the Force Points available, although some Attack Options may have
minima/maxima:
Gradual Build Up –
brings Force Points forward to the first Battlespace:
Roll a further D6,
1 = 0; 2, 3, 4 = +1; 5, 6 = +2 additional Force Points for Battle
1, these are subtracted from Battle 2;
Standing Start
No change.
Roll to determine
NATO responsiveness (refer Table 2b for the effects)
Gradual Build Up -
Roll a D10
1-4 = Active
Response (immediate response)
5-9 = Measured
Response (typical response)
0 = Tail Chasing
Response (delayed response)
Standing Start -
Roll a D10
1-2 = Active
Response (immediate response)
3-7 = Measured
Response (typical response)
8, 9, 0 = Tail
Chasing Response (delayed response)
Unless considering
the willingness of Non Soviet Warsaw Pact now allocate Force Points
to each of the three Sectors.
Consult the
appropriate Forces table for each Sector. Roll on the Forces table
for each Forces Point to determine the forces available.
Optional:
Roll to determine whether Non Soviet Warsaw Pact (NSWP) forces are
willing or not. The probabilities are affected by whether there was
a Gradual Build Up or Standing Start. These are deducted from the
Warsaw Pact Force Point totals for Battlespace 1:
Gradual Build Up -
NSWP Willing 1-8
No change to Force
Points
NSWP Unwilling 9,
0
Roll a further D6,
1, 2 = 0; 3, 4, 5 = -1; 6 = -2 Force Points
Standing Start -
NSWP Willing 1-5
No change to Force
Points
NSWP Unwilling 6-0
Roll a further D6,
1, 2 = -1; 3, 4 = -2; 5, 6 = -3 Force Points
An example of the decision tree is as follows:
- Attack Option - Roll a D10, the result is a 5. Therefore there will be an Attack on Three
Fronts;
- What Buildup - Roll a D6, the result is a 4. Therefore there was a Gradual Buildup;
- Effect of Buildup - Rolling a further D6, the result is a 6. This means that there are an additional 2 FPs in Battlespace 1 but 2 less in Battlespace 2. Therefore the FPs available at this point for allocation by the Warsaw Pact are: Battlespace 1 = 10; Battlespace 2 = 2; and Battlespace 3 = 3.
- NATO response - Roll a D10, the result is a 6. There is a measured response, meaning that NATO in Battlespace 1 had 6!(⅓) FPs. So there are 6 FPs but they're susceptible to unavailability of forces, losing up to a third. Battlespace 2 = 3 and Battlespace 3 = 2.
- NSWP Willingness - Roll a D10, the result is 7. Therefore the NSWP are willing and there is no change Force Points.
The resulting Force Points for allocation amongst the three Sectors:
Warsaw Pact - Battlespace 1 = 10, Battlespace 2 = 2, and Battlespace 3 = 3;
NATO - Battlespace 1 = 6!(⅓) [4], Battlespace 2 = 3, and Battlespace 3 = 2.
A possible allocation may be:
| WP/NATO | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
Battlespace
1
|
4 |
3
|
3
|
2!
|
2!
|
2!
|
Battlespace
2
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Battlespace
3
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
So a battle in Sector 1-Battlespace 1 involves four rolls on the Force Table for the Warsaw Pact and two rolls on a Force Table for NATO, adjusted for unavailability of forces.
The Force Table
Below is an example Forces Table, that
for Sector 1 – Battle 1 for the period 1976 to 1980. I had started to create a table covering individual years, with probabilities for troops, vehicles and weapon systems. While more fine grained, with more variations, it really was a bit over the top. Hence the table below, which is just a D10 roll and there you have a regiment sized force. I intend to create three tables for each Sector-Battlespace covering three time periods. A total of 27 tables, a set for each of the combatants.
Warsaw Pact Forces Table: Sector 1-Battle 1 –
1976 to 1980
|
Die Roll D10
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
0
|
3 x MRBn 2xBTR50
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 x MRBn 2xBMP1
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 x MRBn 2xBTR60
|
|
|
x
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 x MRBn 2xBTR70
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 x MRBn 2xBMP1
|
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
x
|
|
x
|
x
|
1 x TBn 2xT55
|
x
|
x
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 x TBn 2xT62
|
|
|
x
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 x TBn 4x T55 2xT64
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
3 x TBn 4x T62 2xT64
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
3 x TBn 6xT55
|
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
3 x TNn 6xT62
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
x
|
|
1 x ITBn 3xT10
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
D30 (122mm) How
|
|
x
|
x
|
|
x
|
x
|
x
|
|
x
|
x
|
D20 (152mm) How
|
|
x
|
|
|
x
|
|
x
|
|
x
|
|
BM-21 (122mm) MRL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
M-46 (130mm) FG
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
|
|
|
The Future
There
are still more elements to be established. These include:
- defining in game terms the effects of being 'susceptible to shock' and 'susceptible to unavailability of forces';
- how to deal with the recovery of
FPs at the end of a battle;
- how to define battle posture and adjustments to the forces resulting from the Force Tables;
- reflecting the impact of the Attack Options on the support units available, particularly engineering and artillery;
- designing a process for airpower and strategic strikes and their influence on-table;
- how progression, or not, through the Battlespaces affects posture and FPs in subsequent Battlespaces;
- an idea that the forces faced in each sector maybe variable, such as Sector 1 having possibilities for engagements with West German, Dutch or British forces, or Sector 3 having US Army or Bundeswehr.
There are probably more but these will probably emerge as I work on the above elements. Ideas for these elements already exist but need to be fleshed out and completed. Finally, as a repository for my ideas, I may edit these posts later. I'll try and leave a paper trail.
If anyone has any comments on the settings and proportions that I've used, I'd appreciate them.
So, until next time, probably with my Brits.
Appendix 1
Attack Options from
'Warning of War in Europe', June 1984
Option 1 - Attack from
Peacetime Posture
Preparation for
Attack - 24-48 hours; Very little warning for NATO
Only about a dozen
divisions, with very few support units, available for the Attack
Option
2 - Attack with Two Fronts
Preparation for
Attack - minimum 4-5 days, with 7-10 days being more realistic; Four
or more days warning for NATO
About 40 divisions,
with some support units, available for the Attack
Option 3 - Attack
with Three Fronts
Preparation for
Attack - minimum 8-9 days, with 10-12 days being more realistic;
Seven or more days warning for NATO
About 60 divisions,
with support units, available for the Attack
Option 4 - Attack with
Five Fronts
Preparation for
Attack - minimum 15 days, with three weeks being more realistic;
Thirteen or more days warning for NATO
About 85 to 90
divisions, with support units, available for the Attack
